Dream Primer Cup 2026 — 27–28 June, Bucharest, Capital Plaza Hotel

Dream Primer Cup — Winning Probabilities

27–28 June 2026 · Bucharest · Capital Plaza Hotel
Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) • 5-round MacMahon • no handicap
1st Prize
€750
Favorite
Dohyup Kim (55.4%)
Best kyu favorite
Andrei Heemeryck (36.2%)
Players
36
New favourite: a Korean professional joins the field. Dohyup Kim — 3p / 8 dan (KR), GoR 2745 — has entered Dream Primer Cup 2026, and the simulation has been redone from scratch with him in the bracket. He arrives in the form of his life: 6–0 at the Dutch Open in Amsterdam (May), 4–1 at the Polytrade Grand Prix in Bucharest earlier this spring (where he beat Cornel Burzo and lost a single game to Cristian Pop), and a 70% win rate across his last five international tournaments. The model now makes him the favourite at ~55%, with Cristian Pop second at ~31% on the strength of that direct Polytrade win. The four 6 dans collectively drop from a combined ~38% to ~16% — the cup that was Pop's to lose is now genuinely contested at the very top.

Serious contenders (P > 0.1%)

#NameDecl.GoRFormEff. rating P(1st)P(top 3)P(top 5)
1 8D 2745 +10.0 2755 55.43% 91.76% 97.08%
2 7D 2678 +19.4 2697 30.77% 79.38% 90.22%
3 6D 2622 +11.4 2633 4.59% 41.09% 61.01%
4 6D 2612 +17.0 2629 3.60% 30.07% 57.38%
5 6D 2606 +11.4 2617 3.98% 33.52% 61.56%
6 6D 2576 +10.4 2586 1.22% 13.60% 38.81%
7 5D 2504 +1.8 2506 0.09% 2.85% 13.49%
8 5D 2494 +2.8 2497 0.10% 3.12% 33.05%
9 5D 2452 +15.0 2467 0.21% 4.11% 29.32%
10 5D 2419 +3.6 2423 0.01% 0.45% 11.33%

Best kyu race

Probability of being the top-finishing kyu player (typical "best kyu" prize).

#NameDecl.GoRFormEff. rating P(best kyu)
1 1k 2027 -5.9 2021 36.22%
2 1k 2000 +1.1 2001 26.60%
3 1k 1989 -7.4 1982 19.81%
4 2k 1983 +1.1 1984 4.42%
5 1k 1951 +1.9 1953 12.07%
6 2k 1911 -1.8 1909 0.87%
7 3k 1826 +3.6 1830 0.01%

Outsiders with a shot at the podium

#NameDecl.GoRFormEff. rating P(1st)P(top 3)P(top 5)
11 4D 2388 -3.8 2384 0.00% 0.03% 3.71%
12 4D 2377 -6.2 2371 0.00% 0.02% 2.83%

Rest of the field

#NameDecl.GoRFormEff. rating P(1st)P(top 3)P(top 5)
13 3D 2316 -1.9 2314 0.00% 0.00% 0.09%
14 3D 2308 +11.4 2319 0.00% 0.00% 0.10%
15 2D 2239 +10.2 2249 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
16 2D 2231 -5.4 2226 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
17 4D 2209 -3.3 2206 0.00% 0.00% 0.02%
18 2D 2139 +1.2 2140 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
19 2D 2116 -5.0 2111 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
20 1D 2097 +4.5 2102 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
21 1D 2029 -1.1 2028 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
22 1k 2027 -5.9 2021 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
23 1D 2020 -10.0 2010 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
24 1k 2000 +1.1 2001 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
25 1k 1989 -7.4 1982 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
26 2k 1983 +1.1 1984 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
27 1k 1951 +1.9 1953 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
28 2k 1911 -1.8 1909 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
29 3k 1827 -3.3 1824 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
30 3k 1826 +3.6 1830 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
31 3k 1777 +0.0 1777 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
32 4k 1710 -2.1 1708 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
33 5k 1588 -1.5 1586 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
34 8k 1397 +8.3 1405 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
35 7k 1385 +0.0 1385 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
36 8k 1323 -7.4 1316 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

Player profiles

Click an underlined name in any table above to open that player's profile.

Methodology. Ratings pulled from the European Go Database (EGD) — all 33 players matched. Form = rating bonus derived from win rate across the player's last 5 tournaments ((win_rate − 0.5) × 50, capped at ±25 points). Per-game win probability: Elo-style with /200 denominator (P(A) = 1 / (1 + 10^((R_B − R_A) / 200))) — 100-point gap ≈ ~76% win, calibrated for Go. Head-to-head records from the last 4 years (2022–2026) applied as a Bayesian update on top of the Elo prior for the top 9 contenders (prior weight = 4 virtual games). MacMahon: top dan players seeded into the top group (bar at 5D), slide pairing within score groups, no handicap, byes count as a win. Tiebreaks: SOS, then rating. 1st prize: €750.

Player profiles are AI-drafted from the player's most recent 3–5 EGD games and publicly available web information (interviews, club bios, tournament reports). Treat as opinionated commentary, not fact — AI can make mistakes, especially on stylistic claims that aren't directly verifiable from game records.